Climate response

Surface Climate Response to Stratospheric Heating

Impacts of Stratospheric Heating on Surface Climate Processes Such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, QBO and Polar Vortices

Uncertainty

Low

Decision relevance

Medium

Resolvability scale

Long-term sustained deployment

Stratospheric heating drives various impacts on surface climate, including through changes to the North Atlantic Oscillation, QBO and polar vortices. It arises due to longwave absorption by the aerosols, and would be reduced under SAI with some non-sulfate aerosols (e.g. certain solid particles). It is a driver of potential negative impacts on hydroclimate such as risks to the Indian summer monsoon, and drought in South-West Europe (Jones, 2021). This uncertainty has significant overlap with atmospheric circulation related uncertainties below.

Metric

Including stratospheric heating in ESM simulations of SAI changes the root mean square error (RMSE) in temperature or precipitation relative to the baseline ('target') climate state by a factor of 2 or more

Uncertainty

Low

There is some process understanding but limited studies.

Decision relevance

Medium

Stratospheric heating is a significant driver of non-temperature driven surface climate changes under SAI which will impact the overall performance in controlling regional climate changes.

References

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North Atlantic Oscillation response in GeoMIP experiments G6solar and G6sulfur: why detailed modelling is needed for understanding regional implications of solar radiation management(Jones et al., 2021)

Reduced Poleward Transport Due to Stratospheric Heating Under Stratospheric Aerosols Geoengineering(Visioni et al., 2020b)

The Regional Hydroclimate Response to Stratospheric Sulfate Geoengineering and the Role of Stratospheric Heating(Simpson et al., 2019)

Change in Wind Renewable Energy Potential Under Stratospheric Aerosol Injections(Baur et al., 2024b)